A trend is a fact that keeps showing up on the tape — not a hot tip and not a reason to empty a brokerage account on Monday. The S&P 500 finished Friday, August 28 near 7,712 and held the mid-7,600s on Monday after a down open. Year to date the index is up about 12% to 13.5%. That number is mood. The five stock market trends below are the business underneath it.
1. AI spending is still the earnings engine
NVIDIA reported on August 26. Revenue was $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year ago. Data-center sales were $89.0 billion, up 117%. Adjusted earnings were $2.22 a share versus a $2.10 estimate. A beat is an accounting fact. The price that night is mood. Value is still the business — customers, cash, and whether next quarter’s guide holds.
The largest cloud companies are still planning hundreds of billions of dollars of capital spending this year, with Street talk pointing toward a trillion-dollar year in 2027. Capital spending means money spent on buildings, chips, and power — not a dividend. If you cannot explain why a company needs that spending, you own a headline, not a plan.
2. S&P 500 earnings cleared a high bar
With about 97% of S&P 500 companies reported, second-quarter earnings are tracking roughly 52% growth year over year on sales growth near 15% to 16%. About 86% of companies beat estimates. Strip out a couple of mega-cap one-offs and growth is still in the low thirties — the strongest stretch since 2021. All eleven sectors posted positive revenue. Price can run ahead of profits. This quarter, profits ran. The bull market has an earnings story, not only an AI story.
3. The Fed path flipped from “cuts” to hike risk
An interest rate is the price of borrowed money. The Federal Reserve sets the short-term policy rate. After Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech, markets repriced toward more tightening, not easing. The 10-year Treasury yield sat near 4.73% to 4.75%. Futures lifted the odds of a 0.25-point hike at the September 16 meeting. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, is still well above the 2% target. Higher rates make bonds compete with stocks and make borrowing more expensive. That is the trend. It is not a reason to panic-sell the 401(k).
4. Breadth improved — small caps are not invisible
Breadth means how many stocks are participating, not just how far the S&P 500 traveled. The Russell 2000 — the small-company index — is up roughly 19% to 21% year to date, ahead of the S&P 500. Every S&P 500 sector is positive for 2026. Seven sectors are up at least 10%. A market that only lifts five giant names is a mood trade. A market that pays the typical company is closer to a business cycle.
5. Oil and the Strait of Hormuz are the volatility switch
Monday, August 31, U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers preparing to seed the Strait of Hormuz. Oil jumped. Brent moved back above $90. Stocks opened lower. Energy feeds inflation, which feeds the Fed, which feeds every multiple on the S&P 500. This week’s calendar still matters: Dell and Palo Alto after the close Tuesday, Broadcom after the close Wednesday, August nonfarm payrolls Friday. A beat is not a buy. Same-week lottery calls are how beginners donate the debit.
What a beginner does with five trends
Walk the six-step path on Start Here first: 401(k) match, Roth, taxable brokerage. Then read the Sunday note — one lesson, one income fact, one earnings watch. Compare any 12% covered-call ETF ad to the Rule of 5% before you treat the check as a paycheck. Defined-risk structure lives in the Weekly Playbook: debit spreads under $50, max loss is the debit.
Education only — not investment advice. Figures as of August 31, 2026 and will move. We do not sell a 12% covered-call fantasy.