PepsiCo, Delta, Constellation Brands, Levi’s, and a short list of high-volatility names report between Tuesday and Friday for earnings this week. Here is how to look for an edge before you pick a side — then five call ideas, five put ideas, three strangles, and a lotto sleeve that stays in its own bucket.
Grandpa Ridge · Educational series · Written Monday, October 5, 2026 · For readers new to options
The first full week of October is not a parade of giant reports. Monday, October 5, is essentially empty of major U.S. earnings. The names that matter arrive Tuesday through Friday. Lamb Weston and RPM International report before the open on Tuesday, and Constellation Brands reports after the close. Levi Strauss and Applied Digital report Wednesday night. PepsiCo, Helen of Troy, Tilray, and NovaGold are on Thursday’s morning slate. Delta Air Lines reports Friday before the open. That thin calendar is useful if you are still learning. You can read five setups properly. You cannot do that when forty companies print on the same morning.
An earnings option is a priced bet on the size of the surprise, not a vote on whether the company is a good business. The options market publishes that bet as the implied move. In plain English, it is about what the at-the-money straddle costs, divided by the stock price. It is the market’s forecast of how far the stock can travel, up or down, from the print. Into this week that forecast is roughly 3.5% to 4% for PepsiCo, 5% to 6% for Constellation, 6.5% to 7.5% for Delta, 8% to 10% for Levi’s, about 10% for Lamb Weston, 11% to 13% for Applied Digital, about 14% for Worthington Steel, and 17% to 18% for Helen of Troy. NovaGold screens wider. Byrna Technologies screens near 31%. That last number is a warning, not an invitation.
The first advantage is the gap between the implied move and what the stock has actually done on past earnings days. When the live straddle is cheaper than the stock’s own history, long premium starts from a fairer price. Several names on this week’s card have been flagged that way, including Applied Digital, Delta, Levi’s, PepsiCo, and Constellation. When the straddle costs 1.5 to 2 times a normal reaction — NovaGold, and especially Byrna — you are paying for a fireworks show the company does not usually deliver. In that case a debit spread beats a naked option. You buy a strike near the stock and sell a strike farther out, so someone else hands you back a piece of the inflated premium. Your risk is the debit you paid. You can lose all of it. You cannot lose more than that.
The second advantage is direction, and it does not come from the word “beat.” It comes from what is already in the price. Constellation Brands, near $113, is down about 18% in 2026 and about 60% from its 2024 peak. It touched a six-year low at the end of September. Beer depletions finally turned slightly positive last quarter, and malt-based beer was carved out of the aluminum-can tariff, a headwind management had sized around $58 million a year. The stock can still fall. Modelo Especial depletions were down 2% and Corona Extra was down 5%, and management sounded cautious on volumes in September. But a lot of that fear is no longer a secret. A washed-out stock with a small implied move is a different trade from a loved stock with a small implied move.
Delta is the loved stock. Shares are up about 21% this year, near $84. In July, management told investors to expect third-quarter earnings of $2.00 to $2.50 a share. Published Street numbers sit lower, clustering roughly from $1.88 to $2.03 depending on the vendor, so “meeting the Street” can still land at the bottom of the company’s own range. Fuel, premium and corporate demand, and the fourth-quarter outlook are the swing factors. A stock that has already been rewarded needs a clean number and a firm guide. Anything less is how a 7% expected move gets spent to the downside.
The third advantage is the guide, not the penny. Levi Strauss has beaten earnings in each of its last eight quarters and has raised the full-year outlook twice. For this quarter, management already pointed to revenue growth of 4% to 5% and adjusted earnings of $0.34 to $0.36, inside a full-year range of $1.46 to $1.52. The stock, near $20, is only down about 4% on the year, but it is down roughly 18% over the last 90 days. Landing on a number the company already published can earn a shrug. The trade is whether they lift the year again while tariffs and cotton behave.
Keep the structure as boring as the checklist. Use the expiration that covers the report, not three extra months of time you are not trying to own. Implied volatility usually collapses the morning after the announcement. That is why you can be right on direction, too small on the move, and still lose money. A call debit spread — long a strike near the money, short a strike out around the implied move — costs less than a naked call and matches the bet you are actually making: the stock clears the expected move, and you do not need a double. Do the same with puts. A strangle, which owns both an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put, is logical only when you believe the stock will travel farther than the combined debit. Lotto tickets live in a separate pile of money you can watch go to zero.
One calendar note before the cards. Monday’s ISM services report, Thursday’s jobless claims, and Friday morning’s University of Michigan sentiment all land in the same window as these prints. China is also shut for Golden Week through October 7, which mutes the usual read-through from Asian markets, including on steel. Delta and the consumer names can gap on the economy before they gap on their own spreadsheet. Price the option after you know which headline hits first. And confirm every date on the company’s own investor page the day before you trade. Aggregators do not always agree, and a date that slips by one session ruins a weekly option.
Prices as of October 2–4, 2026. Share marks for STZ, LEVI, PEP, DAL, and APLD below are approximate October 2–4 levels, not a live quote.
Who reports, and how wide the market expects them to move
The bars below use a midpoint of the published implied-move ranges so you can see the scale. They are not a quote you can trade. A 4% bar on PepsiCo and a 31% bar on Byrna are not the same product, even if both are called “an earnings play.”
A 4% bar on PepsiCo and a 31% bar on Byrna are not the same product, even if both are called an earnings play.
Illustrative implied-move midpoints, as of Oct 5, 2026. Not a live quote.
| Ticker | Illustrative move | Read |
|---|---|---|
| PEP | 3.7% | Staple. Tight. |
| STZ | 5.5% | Washed out. |
| RPM | 6.7% | Priced like history. |
| DAL | 7% | Loved stock. |
| LEVI | 9% | Guide is the tell. |
| LW | 9.7% | Turnaround test. |
| TLRY | 10.9% | Lotto sleeve only. |
| APLD | 12% | Cheap vs itself. |
| WS | 14.2% | Steel, wide gap. |
| NG | 15% | Rich vs history. |
| HELE | 17.5% | Fat premium. |
| BYRN | 30.9% | About 2× normal. |
Read of the tape: APLD, DAL, LEVI, PEP, and STZ have recently screened as able to travel farther than the straddle implies. NG screens roughly 1.5× its typical reaction. BYRN screens about 2×. HELE is close to fairly priced against its own history. “Cheap versus history” is not the same thing as “this will go up.”
Earnings this week at a glance
| When | Session | Who matters for this note |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 5 | — | No major confirmed U.S. earnings. ISM services in the morning. |
| Tue, Oct 6 | Before the open | Lamb Weston (LW), RPM International (RPM), Apogee (APOG). |
| Tue, Oct 6 | After the close | Constellation Brands (STZ), Penguin Solutions (PENG), Neogen (NEOG), Worthington Steel (WS). |
| Wed, Oct 7 | After the close | Levi Strauss (LEVI), Applied Digital (APLD). |
| Thu, Oct 8 | Before the open | PepsiCo (PEP), Helen of Troy (HELE), Tilray (TLRY), NovaGold (NG), Byrna (BYRN). |
| Fri, Oct 9 | Before the open | Delta Air Lines (DAL). Michigan sentiment the same morning. |
Smaller names also on the aggregators — Saratoga Investment, Richardson Electronics, AngioDynamics, Oil-Dri, New Horizon Aircraft — are left off the card. Thin option markets are a tuition you do not need in week one. Penguin Solutions is a real story (enterprise tech and memory, alongside the AI buildout) but the public setup is thinner than Applied Digital’s, so it stays off the five.
Five call ideas
Each idea below is a defined-risk debit, not a promise. “Call” means the setup leans up. The tool is a call debit spread in the expiration that covers the report: buy a strike near the stock price, sell a strike out near the implied move. Price it live. If the debit costs more than the move you are underwriting, you do not have an edge. Share prices below are approximate marks from October 2–4, 2026, not a live quote.
Levi Strauss (LEVI) — the guide, not the penny
Why this side. Eight straight earnings beats. Direct-to-consumer is about half of sales. Beyond Yoga grew, and Europe has been a bright spot. Management already raised the full-year outlook twice, to revenue growth of 7% to 7.5% and adjusted earnings of $1.46 to $1.52. For this quarter they told you to expect revenue up 4% to 5% and adjusted earnings of $0.34 to $0.36. The stock has corrected about 18% in 90 days while the business got better. That is the asymmetry.
Structure. Weekly call debit spread. Long strike near $20, short strike roughly 8% to 10% higher, so the spread’s width matches the move the market is already pricing. You are paid if they beat a guide they already gave and lift the year again.
What breaks it. Tariffs, cotton, and a guide that merely repeats. A “beat” of a number everyone already has can still sell off. If the debit is fat relative to a $20 stock, shrink the size. Do not widen the strikes to feel bold.
Applied Digital (APLD) — cheap versus its own history
Why this side. This is an AI-power and data-center story, not a snack company. Another 75 megawatts came online at the Polaris Forge 1 campus in North Dakota. Critical IT load there is 250 megawatts, the campus is fully leased, and full buildout is described at 400. The stock is roughly flat on the year and about half its May peak, so the blow-off already happened once. Published targets are far apart, from the low $20s to around $70. Options imply something near 12%. The stock’s average earnings reaction is closer to 18%, and it has moved more than 30% before. Absolute implied volatility is high — near-term readings around 118% have been quoted — but relative to this ticker’s own habit, the straddle has looked cheap.
Structure. Call debit spread, not a naked call. Sell the further strike. You want the leasing and financing update to re-rate the stock toward the bull camp without paying the full straddle.
What breaks it. A financing stumble, a construction delay, or another reminder that the company is not yet profitable. The far-out-of-the-money call belongs in the lotto sleeve below, not in this spread.
Constellation Brands (STZ) — less bad can be enough
Why this side. The stock is down about 18% in 2026 and about 60% from the 2024 peak. Last quarter, beer depletions finally turned positive, at 0.6%, after three declining quarters, and beer operating margin held near 38%. Malt-based beer was excluded from the aluminum tariff, removing a headwind management sized around $58 million a year. Comparable earnings guidance of $11.20 to $11.90 was left standing. Several brokers still cut targets in September after a cautious conference tone. The implied move is modest, and a bit under the stock’s average earnings reaction. Washed out, plus a small straddle, is the setup.
Structure. Call debit spread sized for a relief rally of roughly 6% to 10%, not a trip back to the old highs. Tuesday is an after-the-close print, so the position is on before the bell ends.
What breaks it. The core brands are not healed. Modelo Especial depletions were down 2% and Corona Extra down 5%, and the Hispanic consumer is about half of the beer business. If that demand is still soft, “less bad” does not show up in the stock.
Lamb Weston (LW) — is the fry business actually turning?
Why this side. Lamb Weston is the North American french-fry supplier behind a lot of quick-service menus. The quarter is a test of whether that business is actually turning and whether cost savings are running ahead of plan. One published model sat a little above the Street, at $0.61 against $0.59. A high-single-digit to low-double-digit expected move gives a spread room if volume inflects. Because the report is before the open, the option has to be on before Monday’s close. There is no “I’ll see the headline and then buy it” on a weekly.
Structure. Call debit spread in the weekly that covers Tuesday’s open. Keep the short strike near the implied move so you are not paying for a 25% gap the market is not offering you.
What breaks it. Potato costs, restaurant traffic, and a turnaround that is still a slide deck. A reiteration, rather than evidence, can give the whole implied move back by lunch.
RPM International (RPM) — the lower-octane call
Why this side. Coatings, sealants, and building finishes are a slower story than AI campuses or airlines. The edge is not a mispriced explosion. Options are priced almost on top of RPM’s own history, and the last two years have actually been a bit livelier than the ten-year average. A published shortcut model was a touch above the Street, $1.97 against $1.95. On the April 2026 report the stock closed up about 12%. On the July report it finished up about 6%, inside a wider implied move. You get paid if this print looks like the better days, not if you need a miracle.
Structure. A modest call debit spread. This is the position you size smaller in drama and larger in patience. Same rule: before the open means the trade is placed Monday.
What breaks it. “Fairly priced” means you can be right about the company and still not clear the debit. If construction demand shows up soft in the guide, the coatings tape does not get a sympathy bid from Pepsi or Delta.
If the debit costs more than the move you are underwriting, you do not have an advantage. You have a hope.
Five put ideas
A put debit spread is the mirror image: long a strike near the stock, short a strike farther down, debit paid up front, maximum loss equal to that debit. These are not “the company is going to zero” arguments. They are arguments that the next gap is more likely down than up, and that the premium is not charging you a fantasy to express it.
PepsiCo (PEP) — a tight straddle on a soft volume story
Why this side. Last quarter, North American food volume was flat and beverage volume fell 4%. International carried more of the growth. The pricing plan has flipped: after cutting prices earlier in 2026, PepsiCo has been lining up low- to mid-single-digit increases on some chips, sodas, and dips. That is a hard trick if the shopper already walked away. JPMorgan moved to Neutral. The implied move is only about 4%, a little under an average earnings reaction closer to 5%, with a historical max around 8%. A guide trim, or another soft volume print, can travel farther than a straddle this cheap.
Structure. Put debit spread. Long near the money, short strike about 4% to 5% lower. A naked put is a poor use of a tight expected move, because a 2% dip does not pay the premium.
What breaks it. International growth and a reaffirmed organic outlook — the company has been talking about low- to mid-single-digit organic revenue growth — can squeeze a staple that is already down on the year. Defined risk is the product.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) — fading a stock that already got paid
Why this side. Delta’s average earnings move is closer to 9% than to 7%, so the straddle is not expensive versus history. The direction is the part you have to earn. The stock is the best large name on this list in year-to-date performance. Management’s own July range for this quarter was $2.00 to $2.50. Street estimates, which differ by vendor, have been clustering below that, roughly $1.88 to $2.03. Landing at the low end of a range the company itself set, or a cautious fourth quarter, is enough to spend the implied move to the downside. Fuel is the other lever. Record revenue last quarter does not repeal the fuel bill.
Structure. Put debit spread struck to pay if the stock gives back most of that 7%. Do not buy a put 20% out of the money and call it a thesis.
What breaks it. Premium and corporate travel have been the earnings engine. A guide raise blows a put spread up, which is why the loss is capped at the debit. If you genuinely cannot pick a side, skip this card and use the Delta strangle instead. Do not hold both.
Helen of Troy (HELE) — consumer discretionary, fat premium
Why this side. Housewares and personal-care brands feel a tired consumer before soda companies and airlines do. Against its own history the implied move is roughly fair: an average reaction near 15%, a max near 25%, a live straddle near 17% to 18%. Fair is not the same as cheap. You need a real miss, not a penny, because traders have already priced a violent open.
Structure. Put debit spread only. Buy near the money, sell a strike inside the expected range, and let the short strike take back part of the volatility. A naked put into an 18% implied move can lose money on an 8% decline. That is the whole lesson of this card.
What breaks it. A margin beat after cost cuts can squeeze a low-expectation stock just as hard the other way. Size it as a satellite, not as the week’s center of gravity. Liquidity in a $600 million name is part of the risk.
NovaGold (NG) — a project update wearing an earnings costume
Why this side. NovaGold does not have sales to beat. The swing factors are the Donlin project, the feasibility work, cash, and the share count. In late September the company said it expects to become the sole owner of Donlin by acquiring Paulson’s 40% stake in exchange for shares, with closing anticipated around December. That can be good long-term news and still be bad near-term news for the stock, because development stories gap down when the update is a bigger share count rather than a bigger mine. The stock was already down about 10% in the week into the print. Options have screened roughly 1.5 times a typical reaction near 9%.
Structure. Put debit spread, and only if the debit is not silly. Rich implied volatility means the puts are not “cheap” just because the stock is $6.58. Confirm the session before you trade. Calendars do not fully agree on the timing.
What breaks it. A clean funding headline can squeeze anyone leaning short. This is a speculative put, not a core position.
Worthington Steel (WS) — a wide implied move in a cyclical tape
Why this side. Steel is a spread business. It moves with auto and appliance demand and with whatever the tape believes about industrial activity. China is shut for Golden Week through October 7, so the usual Asian read-through on metals is missing in the same window this company reports. A 14% implied move says traders already expect a gap. The put is the bet that spreads and the volume commentary disappoint, in a stock that does not need a mega-cap multiple to fall 10%.
Structure. Put debit spread in the weekly that covers Wednesday’s open. Look at the open interest before you sell the short strike. In a smaller name, a “good” strike with no market is not a good strike.
What breaks it. Tight steel spreads and a beat on shipments can run the same 14% the other way. If you do not have a view on the cycle, this name belongs in the strangle section or nowhere.
Three strangles
A long strangle buys an out-of-the-money call and an out-of-the-money put. You lose the combined debit if the stock stays between the two strikes. You are not forecasting the press release. You are saying the move will be larger than the price of that bet. If the debit costs more than the implied move, the strangle is the trap. Walk away. That single sentence will save more money this week than any ticker on the card.
Applied Digital — the cleanest “I don’t know the side” name
Analysts are split from the low $20s to around $70. A new lease or a financing line can justify the call. A delay or a dilutive deal can justify the put. History says this stock often travels farther than a 12% straddle. Buy the wings only if the combined debit is inside that 11% to 13%, preferably inside it by enough to matter. Each strike should sit several percent out of the money. If the only affordable version costs more than the expected move, you are not buying an edge. You are buying excitement.
Delta — both the beat and the sell-the-news are live
The bull case is premium and corporate travel, plus a guide that sits comfortably inside or above the $2.00 to $2.50 range management already drew. The bear case is fuel, a low-end landing, and a stock up 21% on the year that does not need an excuse to give back a week. A strangle is the honest expression when you believe the gap will be real and you refuse to guess the sign. It loses, cleanly, if Delta does the boring thing and moves 3%. Do not also hold the Delta put. Pick one expression.
Worthington Steel — only if the wings are actually cheap
A strangle on a name whose straddle is already wide is the hardest one on this page to price correctly. Shipment strength and spread compression are equally capable of a double-digit open, and most of us do not have an information edge on steel spreads from the couch. The logic holds only when the out-of-the-money wings can be bought for a debit well inside that 14%. If they cannot, keep the directional put spread or skip the name. The story does not overrule the debit. Price decides.
Lotto sleeve
This pile is expected to expire worthless most weeks. Cap it before you open the option chain. A sensible ceiling is a sliver of the week’s risk budget — money you can lose without touching the five calls and five puts. If a contract is not actually cheap, it is not a lotto. It is a donation wearing a small share price.
Tilray (TLRY) — the cannabis headline ticket
This is the classic cheap-looking weekly. Cannabis-and-beverage earnings attract out-of-the-money calls because the contract price is a small number of dollars and the stock has gapped 20% before. The implied move is not wildly rich versus Tilray’s own history, which is why it qualifies as a lotto rather than a warning. One or two contracts, defined as a spend. You do not average down a lottery ticket. An ordinary headline is how the premium dies quietly.
Applied Digital, far out of the money — the tail, not the base case
This is separate from the debit spread. It pays only if the print rhymes with the 30%-plus earnings gaps already in Applied Digital’s history. You are buying the tail. Near-term implied volatility near 118% can make “far” strikes expensive in pennies relative to a $25 stock. If the call is not cheap on that test, pass. The spread above is the position. This is the scratch-off.
Byrna (BYRN) — the lotto not to dress up as a strategy
Options are charging roughly twice a normal reaction. Buying the straddle, or a fat strangle, is paying carnival prices for a stock that usually does not throw the carnival. If you touch it at all, it is a tiny wing you have already written off in your head. It is not a volatility thesis, and it does not belong next to Pepsi or Delta in the same risk budget.
A date to confirm, not a fourth lotto. Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) shows up on some calendars early this week and not on others. Do not trade a scraped date. If you confirm the print with the company, the interesting fact is mathematical: one options read had the implied move near 11% against an average earnings reaction near 20% and a max near 29%. That is the same “cheap versus its own history” tell as Applied Digital, in a smaller semiconductor-test name. Confirm first. Then decide. Hope is not a timestamp.
The checklist
- Confirm the session — before the open or after the close — on the company’s investor page the day before. A weekly option does not survive a slipped date.
- Write down the implied move before you look at a strike. The strike is a tool. The implied move is the bet.
- Compare that number with the stock’s average earnings move. Is premium cheap versus this stock’s own history, fair, or rich?
- Pick a direction only when the setup is lopsided: washed out, or already paid for good news. If it is not lopsided, use a strangle or nothing.
- Use a debit spread when implied volatility is high. Pay a debit you can lose in full without changing your week.
- Keep the lotto sleeve in a different pile from the five calls and five puts. Do not “upgrade” a scratch-off into a position because it feels small.
- If the debit costs more than the move you are underwriting, you do not have an advantage. Close the ticket.
A note on how to read this, and how not to
Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy or sell a security, an option, or a strategy. It is a teaching note about how earnings options are priced, written for people who are new to the market and for the Grandpa Ridge readers who want the reasoning next to the ticker. Options can expire worthless. A defined-risk debit can still go to zero, and that is the ordinary outcome when the stock does something smaller than you paid for. Earnings dates move. Consensus earnings differ by data vendor; where they differ, this note shows the range instead of pretending there is one true number. Prices move between Monday morning, October 5, 2026, and the moment you trade. Past beats — Levi’s eight in a row, Pepsi’s mixed record, Delta’s revenue streak — do not predict the next print. This is not advice tailored to your account, your taxes, or the amount you can afford to lose.
If you are brand new, paper-trade the checklist for one week before you spend real premium. Write the implied move in a notebook, write what you thought would happen, and write what the stock actually did the next morning. That log will teach you more than another ticker ever will. The goal of this series is not a hot weekly. It is a reader who can tell a 4% staple straddle from a 31% lotto, and who sizes them differently on purpose.
The goal is not a hot weekly. It is a reader who can tell a 4% staple straddle from a 31% lotto, and who sizes them differently on purpose.
Where the figures came from
Compiled Monday, October 5, 2026, for the U.S. trading week of October 5–9. Report dates and sessions lean on the eOption weekly calendar published October 2, 2026, cross-checked against MarketScreener, Earnings Whispers’ most-anticipated list, Seeking Alpha’s October 4 earnings-week preview, and Regards of Wallstreet’s verified calendar. Implied moves are ranges across Benzinga (October 4), Regards of Wallstreet, EarningsWatcher, and OptionPilot, because a single vendor’s straddle is a snapshot, not a fact. Company specifics: Constellation depletions, the roughly $58 million aluminum-tariff item, and the $11.20–$11.90 comparable guide; Levi’s eight-quarter beat streak, DTC mix, and the $1.46–$1.52 / $0.34–$0.36 guidance; Pepsi’s North American volumes and the planned price increases; Delta’s July range of $2.00–$2.50; Applied Digital’s Polaris Forge update (75 megawatts, 250 megawatts critical IT load, fully leased, 400 megawatt buildout) and the split in published targets. NovaGold’s Donlin ownership step is from the company’s late-September update. Shortcut-versus-Street earnings figures for RPM, Lamb Weston, and others are from a published October 5–9 forecast note and are not the author’s model. China Golden Week (October 1–7) and the U.S. macro schedule are from the same weekly event calendar. Refresh every number before you publish or trade.
Keep learning: Start Here · Upcoming earnings next week · Robinhood how to sign up
Get the free Sunday Note
One short classroom note on Sundays — setups, checklists, and how to read the week without the noise.
Disclaimer
Educational content only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security or option. Options can expire worthless and you can lose your entire debit. Earnings dates, consensus estimates, and implied moves change. Confirm every date with the company and every price with your broker. Past results do not predict the next print. Grandpa Ridge is not your advisor.